BRICS is the acronym for the economic cooperation bloc comprised of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. The term came into use among investors, as those nations were seen as having the most potential for growth. That idea turned into actual cooperation between governments, complete with high profile annual meetings. What it will become remains to be seen.
Many new members are set to be welcomed into BRICS in January 2024. The additions are Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. While this may seem like boring news to the average Westerner, busy with the pressing necessities of life, it has implications that may someday be impossible to ignore.
First, consider the nations which form the bloc. Russia is on the verge of open confrontation with the west over Ukraine. Their invasion was launched just weeks after announcing a “no limits partnership” with China. To believe that is a mere coincidence is a bit too much to swallow. Perhaps they believed a swift victory was possible, as evidenced by their initial drive towards Kyiv, but to ensure even the silent acquiescence of such a key ally prior to beginning the conflict has proven vital.
Swift victory was not achieved. Punitive sanctions and actual disruptions have profoundly affected food and energy prices worldwide. Many of the changes in supply that have come about, particularly in Europe, are likely permanent. Those who spent time “behind the iron curtain,” like Lithuania, have been the most vocal on opposing Russia. Possibly they fear conflict is inevitable and would prefer to engage before it reaches their soil. Time will tell.
With Europe virtually off limits economically, Russia has found support in other allies. China has been a mainstay. They have absorbed oil production eschewed by Europe and expanded cooperation in many other areas. Seafood is one, having banned imports from Japan after the release of water from the Fukushima nuclear reactor. Pipelines are also being built as well as physical border crossings and railway connections to facilitate all types of commerce in Russia’s far east.
There have also been high profile meetings between Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong-Un of North Korea recently. Both are happy to flaunt their relationship before disapproving foes. Similarly, China recently hosted Bashar al-Assad of Syria. Both meetings are an open provocation to the West. For North Korea, “defense cooperation” may end up meaning lucrative munitions sales in addition to Russian assistance with its “space program.” Rockets do what rockets do, whichever way you point them, and there is a certain arrogance in Russia flaunting UN security council sanctions it helped put in place. In essence, “What are you going to do about it?”
You can also see the competition for influence playing out in Africa. The recent coup in Niger featured abundant Russian flag waving and slogans such as “France out, Russia in.” It is a repeat of what occurred in Mali and Burkina Faso in recent years.
Military juntas now control all three of those countries and they have signed a mutual defense pact to help each other retain power. It is a major blow to France, whose former colonies served as bases in the fight against Islamic extremism across Africa. Russian Wagner mercenaries had filled the security void in Mali and Burkina Faso. It is not clear how the situation on the ground will be handled after the “untimely death” of Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin and the disbanding or absorption of his force into the Russian military. Financial interests are also at stake, including significant production of oil, manganese and uranium.
China is deep in trade disputes with both the United States and Europe. Sanctions fly in all directions. Despite its massive manufacturing capacity, Western technology has been necessary for China to produce cutting-edge products. This has been particularly true in the field of semiconductors. Sanctions cut off access to the machines necessary to produce the smallest, most powerful chips. The role these chips play in advancing AI capabilities and data processing is considered vital to our future national security. They have applications in remote controlled or autonomous vehicles, not to mention hyper-sonic missile guidance and defense.
All major nations are investing heavily in these types of craft, many of which are capable of maneuvers the human body can’t even withstand. In this type of conflict the best software or the most computing power might mean victory or defeat.
In a recent shock announcement, former Chinese powerhouse Huawei released a 5G capable smartphone it had produced domestically. Security concerns led to sanctions that eviscerated Huawei’s handset business. They were denied market access as well as the advanced equipment needed to manufacture 5G equipment. They may have overcome the ban by adapting existing equipment through a painstaking process that results in slower and far less profitable chip production. Nevertheless, it was a victory for them to bring a competitive product to market at all. Never mind one that rivals or surpasses top of the line products from Apple and Google.
As China weighs its options regarding Taiwan, the value of the BRICS alliance becomes clear. Russia and China’s bilateral ties have already proven their worth and there is no doubt that the Western response in Ukraine informs China’s thinking regarding Taiwan. Brazil is also empowered by BRICS. Again under the leadership of avowed socialist Lula of the Workers’ Party, Brazil seeks a leadership role in forming a coalition of South American countries. They were the driving force in bringing neighbor Argentina into BRICS. Prevailing sentiment in Central and South America can be seen as more nations choose to formally recognize China over Taiwan. The region was once a bastion of support.
Many nations believe they can advance their own agendas through BRICS membership. Saudi Arabia has been incensed at inconsistent US support. They have purchased Russian oil (a lower and cheaper grade than their own to burn for fuel) despite pressure. Their breakthrough “normalization deal” with Iran was mediated by China. Iran obviously seeks to avoid isolation and allegedly profits by selling drones to Russia. They have also supplied China with oil.
India’s role may be more complex. They have the world’s largest population, an economy in need of development and a complex history of alliances. They have an ongoing border dispute with China, who they see as a primary rival. They also have longstanding arms deals with Russia and have continued to purchase oil from them. However, Prime Minister Modi has also engaged in a flurry of diplomatic activity and deal making ahead of upcoming national elections. He has visited the White House, negotiated many significant business deals and is currently pursuing a free-trade agreement with the United Kingdom. Taken all together, with their many domestic production initiatives and ambitious space program, we see a nation seeking to take its place among the great powers of the world. But this does not lessen their interest in BRICS; rather it is part and parcel.
What is being built is a counterweight to organizations like the G20 and even the UN. It is an alliance that can offset punitive measures like sanctions by significantly lessening their impact. The benefits of this are obvious to many current and potential BRICS members. It many ways it is setting itself up as an alternative.
President Xi of China attended the BRICS summit, yet snubbed the G20 in India only a few weeks later. Divided sentiment over Ukraine rendered any statement from the G20, which requires unanimous agreement, nearly impossible. What was produced was quite half hearted. Consensus may have been reached just to avoid embarrassing India.
The UN and the G20 already enjoy limited legitimacy. Security Council members regularly block anything that doesn’t suit them. A competing organization could destroy even the feeble pretense of cooperation. And make no mistake, competition is the name of the game.
It seems that we are experiencing a continuation of the Cold War. While pure communism is out, BRICS is the champion of the “Global South,” a term meaning something between third-world and anti-colonial. The narrative fits so well with what education has been pushing it could have been designed by academia. Lines between the primary actors are similar to the Cold War, but perhaps with increased competition over nations (or politicians) that can be swayed by economic means.
Economics is key to the entire confrontation. The New Development Bank was founded by BRICS in 2015. Essentially it is a rival to the IMF, though naturally it claims not to be. It is an alternative for financing in member nations and beyond, and naturally a way to keep the profits closer to home. It enjoys a AA+ credit rating, the same as the United States after our recent downgrade.
Most of the BRICS nations have also taken measures to decrease reliance on the US dollar. While still limited in scope, just figuring out the logistics is a major step. To this end, the recent BRICS meeting called for a study into the potential for a common currency. Real de-dollarization would have dire consequences for the US economy.
Proverbs 22:3-4 reads, “A prudent man foreseeth the evil, and hideth himself: but the simple pass on, and are punished. By humility and the fear of the Lord are riches, and honour, and life.” While the sky may not be falling, our nation could use an honest assessment of our past, present and future. Are we humble? Do we fear the Lord? Are we still willing to sacrifice, stand on principle and trust in God to uphold our cause?
Or are we corrupt? Are we addicted to luxury and pleasure and consumed with vanity? Sadly, our enemies need not stretch the truth to impugn our morals or our leadership. While the population may be too hypnotized by entertainment or busy pondering its gender to notice, it is obvious from the outside looking in.
Changes need to be made before the situation deteriorates any further. This nation needs an education on the source of its blessings as well as the personal and collective benefit of Godly principles. It is our only hope in the face of such determined opposition. We must lead by example, without hypocrisy, being both willing and able to speak up for the truth when necessary. We trust in God no matter what comes. There is no substitute for His protection, but when it looks like rain you bring an umbrella.
